Highest temperature in Seoul on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is experiencing a record-breaking heatwave as overnight temperatures have remained above 25°C for 22 consecutive days in July, shattering a century-old streak and marking the longest such period since modern records began in 1907[1][3]. This extreme thermal persistence suggests daytime highs are likely to push well beyond typical seasonal averages, with the region recently recording its second-hottest July since 1973 and an average temperature of 27.1°C[7].

Historical data indicates July daily highs in Seoul typically reach 85°F (29.4°C), rarely exceeding 91°F (32.8°C), yet recent anomalies have seen the city hit 37.7°C in early July, the highest early-July temperature in 117 years[5][8]. The all-time national record of 41.0°C was set in Hongcheon, but the Incheon International Airport station, which serves as the resolution source, consistently tracks the intense humid heat characteristic of the capital region during these tropical night events[2].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily bulletins and Wunderground’s real-time updates for the Incheon station, as the North Pacific high-pressure system continues to drive hot, humid conditions with temperatures frequently soaring to 35°C or higher[9]. The market’s current 0% probability for any specific range appears disconnected from the active record-breaking trend, with the primary catalyst being the sustained high-pressure dominance that has already produced 22 tropical nights and is expected to maintain peak temperatures through the settlement window[1][3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Seoul on July 12? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.