Highest temperature in Seoul on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s July heat profile makes this a straightforward weather market rather than a long-shot forecast: late July is normally the city’s warmest stretch, with average daily highs around 28°C, and recent extremes have shown how quickly temperatures can overshoot that level.[5][3] The crowd’s current lean towards **27°C** as the frontrunner, with **28°C** next, sits close to climatological norms rather than to the recent record-breaking end of the distribution.[1][5]

That matters because the temperature being settled is the **highest reading at Incheon Intl Airport Station** on the day, not a citywide average, and airport maxima can be a little lower or higher than central Seoul depending on wind, cloud and rainfall. For framing, July 2025 was South Korea’s second-hottest July on record, while Seoul also logged 37.7°C in early July 2025, underlining that a very hot spell is not unusual even if the market is currently pricing a modest top-end outcome.[2][3]

The key catalyst is the near-term synoptic pattern over the Korean Peninsula: traders will be watching whether a high-pressure ridge holds over the Seoul–Incheon corridor or whether cloud and showers cap the afternoon maximum. The main dependency is the official Wunderground history page for Incheon, since the market settles on the highest recorded temperature for that station on 23 July 2026.[1] A fresh heatwave warning or a forecast upgrade from the Korea Meteorological Administration would be the most likely driver of any late repricing, while a wetter or more unstable forecast would pull the market back towards the lower bands.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Seoul on July 23? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.