Highest temperature in Seoul on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s heat is the real-world event behind this market, but the settlement source is the Incheon Intl Airport Station reading on 31 July, so the key question is whether the airport site posts a maximum that lands in the relevant Celsius band on the day. Recent coverage shows South Korea is in a severe heatwave, with Seoul logging a record 22 tropical nights in July and the peninsula producing exceptional highs elsewhere in late July, including 41.4°C in Yangsan on 31 July 2026.[1][6]

The current 0% crowd price for a YES outcome suggests traders are either treating the specified band as very unlikely or waiting for the day’s peak to emerge before assigning any probability. That is consistent with how July climatology usually behaves: Seoul’s average July maximum is around 29°C, while the city’s all-time highs are far above that, leaving an outcome in any specific temperature range highly sensitive to the exact afternoon peak rather than the overnight heat.[13][14]

The main catalyst is the day’s weather progression at the airport station, not political events, so traders should watch the Wunderground daily history page for late-morning through afternoon updates and any extension of the nationwide heatwave reported by Yonhap or similar outlets.[8][6] Given that the market settles on the *highest* recorded temperature for the day, the only real dependency is whether the peak is reached before the observation cut-off and where that final reading sits within the market’s range ladder.[8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 31? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.