Highest temperature in Seoul on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul faces a critical heat assessment on 9 July 2026, as traders evaluate whether the Incheon International Airport Station will record a peak temperature exceeding 26°C. The market currently assigns a 43% probability to this specific outcome, with 27°C as the next most likely result at 31%, while the implied probability for temperatures of 20°C or below sits at 0% [1]. This distribution reflects a collective expectation of significant summer warmth, consistent with Seoul’s July climate where daily highs typically climb from 81°F to 85°F, rarely dipping below 74°F [2].

Historical data underscores the plausibility of these odds, given that South Korea experienced its second-hottest July since 1973 in 2025, with an average temperature of 27.1°C [4]. Recent extremes further support this trajectory; Seoul recorded a historic early-July peak of 37.8°C on 8 July in a previous year, marking the highest temperature ever recorded for that period in the capital [9]. Additionally, July 2025 saw the longest stretch of tropical nights in Seoul for 117 years, indicating a persistent trend of elevated nighttime and daytime temperatures [7].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, for the official daily high at the Incheon station [1]. While no specific political debates or campaign disclosures directly influence weather outcomes, the market’s leaning on the 26°C threshold is driven by the broader climatic catalyst of record-breaking summer heat patterns observed across East Asia in recent years [4]. The settlement window closes at 12:00:00Z on 9 July, locking in the final temperature reading for resolution [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 9? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.