Highest temperature in Seoul on June 10?

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Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 10 June 2026 will determine which temperature range resolves this market. Seoul's climate in early June typically sits in the warm-to-hot range, with historical daily highs averaging around 26–28°C, though variation occurs based on weather systems moving across the Korean peninsula.

Historical records from the past decade show that early June temperatures at Incheon rarely exceed 30°C, with such peaks typically arriving later in the month as summer intensifies. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the market's upper temperature thresholds to fall outside plausible bounds, or that insufficient liquidity exists to establish meaningful odds. June weather in Seoul is shaped by the transition into the monsoon season, with cloud cover and precipitation patterns capable of suppressing daytime highs. Comparable years reveal that temperatures in the 25–29°C band dominate early June observations, making extreme heat or unseasonable cold equally unlikely.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather forecasts released in May 2026, particularly those from the Korea Meteorological Administration, which typically issue extended outlooks 10–14 days ahead. Any significant high-pressure system or heat wave warnings issued in the days preceding 10 June would shift expectations toward higher temperature ranges. Conversely, tropical cyclone activity or unusual cold-air intrusions from the north—rare but possible in early June—could suppress readings. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on the resolution date, allowing traders to incorporate morning weather data before final odds crystallise.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul on June 10? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.