Highest temperature in Seoul on June 11?

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Market context

Seoul's weather on 11 June 2026 will be measured by the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station that day, with settlement determined by historical data from Weather Underground. The current market probability of 0% suggests traders are either uncertain about which temperature band will occur or have not yet engaged with this weather-specific contract.

June temperatures in Seoul typically range between 20°C and 28°C, though extremes occasionally push higher. Historical records from the Korea Meteorological Administration show that early June can see variability depending on monsoon onset timing and subtropical high-pressure systems. The 0% probability reading reflects the market's nascent stage rather than any meteorological certainty; comparable weather markets often show low initial engagement until closer to the settlement date when forecasts become more reliable.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Korean Meteorological Administration's extended forecasts as June 2026 approaches, particularly any alerts regarding heat waves or unusual pressure patterns in the weeks preceding the settlement window. Sea-surface temperatures in the Yellow Sea and the timing of the East Asian monsoon system will influence whether Seoul experiences typical early-summer conditions or anomalous heat. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 11 June, meaning real-time weather data from that specific day will determine the final resolution, making late-stage forecast updates from established meteorological services the primary catalyst for probability shifts.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul on June 11? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.