Highest temperature in Seoul on June 12?

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Market context

The market seeks to identify the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 12 June 2026, with settlement determined by historical weather data from Weather Underground. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently expect the temperature to fall outside the uppermost range bracket, though the specific temperature thresholds defining each range are not disclosed in the market description.

Seoul's early summer climate in mid-June typically produces warm conditions, with historical averages around 24–27°C for daily highs. The city experiences the onset of the East Asian monsoon season during this period, which can introduce variability through cloud cover and precipitation. Comparable June weather patterns from recent years show occasional peaks exceeding 30°C on clear days, though such extremes remain less frequent than in July and August. The 0% probability may reflect trader expectations that the highest temperature will fall below the market's top range threshold rather than an assessment that measurement itself is unlikely.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather forecasting updates as June 2026 approaches. The Korea Meteorological Administration typically releases extended outlooks 10–14 days in advance, providing guidance on temperature anomalies and precipitation likelihood. Any significant atmospheric patterns—such as early heat waves or unusual monsoon onset timing—would shift expectations for the upper temperature bands. Settlement depends entirely on the automated historical record from Incheon International Airport Station, making the resolution mechanism straightforward once the date passes, though traders must account for measurement station location and any potential data recording variations.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul on June 12? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.