Highest temperature in Seoul on June 15?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 15 June 2026 will determine which range this market resolves to, with settlement based on historical weather data from Weather Underground. Seoul's mid-June climate typically sits in the warm-to-hot range, though daily variation remains substantial depending on atmospheric conditions and seasonal patterns.

Historical records from Incheon Airport show June temperatures commonly reach 25–30°C, with occasional peaks above 32°C during early heat waves or anomalous weather systems. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder market pending more specific range definitions. Comparable June days at this location over the past decade provide the baseline: most settle in the 27–29°C band, though outlier days have exceeded 33°C when subtropical air masses dominate the Korean peninsula.

Traders should monitor spring 2026 weather patterns and any emerging climate anomalies reported by the Korea Meteorological Administration in the months preceding mid-June. El Niño or La Niña conditions, if established by early 2026, could shift expectations toward warmer or cooler outcomes. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 15 June, meaning the final recorded high from Incheon Airport's official station becomes binding; any discrepancy between local forecasts and the Weather Underground historical record will determine resolution disputes.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul on June 15? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.