Highest temperature in Seoul on June 17?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 17 June 2026 will be measured by the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station that day, with settlement determined by historical data from Weather Underground. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently expect the market will not resolve to any specific temperature range, though this reflects the early stage of the forecast rather than meteorological certainty.

Mid-June in Seoul typically falls within the early monsoon season, with average highs around 27–29°C, though temperatures can exceed 30°C during heat waves. Historical records from the Korea Meteorological Administration show June extremes ranging from 34°C to as low as 15°C depending on weather patterns. The settlement window closing at noon UTC on 17 June means traders must account for the full calendar day's temperatures, with morning and afternoon readings both factored into the final resolution figure.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and broader East Asian weather patterns in the weeks preceding mid-June 2026. The North Pacific high-pressure system's positioning will be critical—an early or intense high typically drives temperatures upward across the Korean peninsula, whilst active monsoon troughs can suppress highs considerably. Current climate models and any issued heat-wave warnings from June 2026 onwards will provide concrete catalysts for probability shifts. The specificity of using Incheon airport data rather than central Seoul readings means traders must verify the exact station location and ensure historical comparisons use the same measurement point.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul on June 17? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.