Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul’s June 25, 2026, weather hinges on the transition into monsoon season, where rising humidity and cloud cover typically suppress peak daytime temperatures despite warmer baseline conditions. Historical data shows late June in Seoul often sees highs between 25–30°C (77–86°F), with real-feel temperatures exceeding 35°C due to humidity over 80%, yet actual recorded highs rarely breach 32°C before the monsoon fully intensifies [1][3][7].

The 0% YES crowd-implied probability aligns with comparable cases where late-June heatwaves in Seoul are uncommon; average June highs sit at 27°C (87°F), and monsoon onset by mid-to-late June frequently brings rainfall that caps temperature spikes [1][2][4]. Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or precipitation timing, as delayed monsoon onset could briefly elevate temperatures, though current trends suggest suppression [6][8]. No major political declarations or campaign-finance disclosures are expected to influence weather patterns; the market leans on meteorological catalysts alone, specifically the timing of monsoon arrival as cited by the Korea Meteorological Administration [4][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.