Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26?

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Market context

Seoul is currently experiencing a sweltering heatwave that has shattered June temperature records across South Korea, with hot and humid air flowing in from the southwest. This extreme weather pattern has pushed daily average temperatures to unprecedented levels in multiple cities, including Busan, Daegu, and Mokpo, while Seoul itself recorded its fifth-highest June average of 28.2°C on Monday, just shy of the capital's all-time record of 29.4°C set last year[1][2].

Historically, June in Seoul typically sees average highs around 26°C, rarely exceeding 27°C, yet the current heatwave has already driven temperatures significantly higher than normal seasonal expectations[4][5]. The fact that the market currently implies a 0% probability for the highest temperature range suggests traders are betting against the heatwave persisting or intensifying further by June 26, despite the recent record-breaking trend that has affected 59 out of 97 weather stations nationwide[1][2].

Traders should monitor upcoming weather forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and any announcements regarding heatwave mitigation measures, as these could signal whether the extreme temperatures will continue or subside[1]. The market is leaning heavily on the immediate trajectory of the current heatwave, with the primary catalyst being the KMA's daily temperature updates and any scheduled declarations about public health warnings during this sweltering period[1][7]. Recent news from The Korea Herald confirms that the heatwave has already broken records in multiple cities, making the persistence of such conditions the key factor for this prediction[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

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On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.