Highest temperature in Seoul on June 27?

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Market context

The underlying event is the daily peak temperature at Incheon International Airport on 27 June 2026, which will determine the market resolution. Historical data for Seoul in June shows daily highs typically rising from 77°F to 81°F, rarely dropping below 68°F or exceeding 87°F[2]. Recent years have seen record-breaking heat, with Seoul hitting 35.8°C in August 2025 and 39.6°C in 2018, while South Korea’s all-time record reached 41.0°C in Hongcheon[3][4][6]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the highest range appears inconsistent with these comparable cases, suggesting the market may be leaning on an unconfirmed assumption of unusually cool conditions rather than the established trend of rising June temperatures.

Traders should monitor upcoming weather forecasts from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, for any shifts in predicted peak temperatures ahead of the settlement window[1]. Key catalysts include scheduled climate declarations from South Korean meteorological agencies and potential campaign-finance disclosures related to green energy initiatives that could influence public perception of heat risks. Recent news from Weather Underground highlights the nation’s vulnerability to extreme heat, reinforcing the likelihood of high temperatures in late June[3]. The market is currently leaning on the absence of immediate forecast updates, but any new data indicating a heatwave could rapidly alter the implied probabilities.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul on June 27? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.