Highest temperature in Seoul on June 4?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 4 June 2026, with settlement based on Wunderground historical weather data for that specific station and date.

Seoul's early June climate typically sits in the warm-to-hot range. Historical records from Incheon Airport show June temperatures commonly reach 28–32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting resolution data or treating this as a straightforward weather forecast rather than a binary event. Comparable June days at the station over the past decade provide the baseline: most settle in the 28–30°C band, though outlier heat events have pushed readings toward 35°C. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 4 June 2026, meaning the market resolves based on the full calendar day's peak temperature recorded by the airport weather station.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather forecasts released in late May 2026, particularly from the Korea Meteorological Administration and international models tracking potential heat waves or monsoon systems affecting the peninsula. Incheon Airport's official records, accessible via Wunderground, will be the sole arbiter; any discrepancies between local forecasts and the station's actual recorded data determine the outcome. The specificity of the resolution source—a single airport station rather than Seoul city proper—means microclimatic variations and equipment readings carry weight. No scheduled weather events or atmospheric patterns are currently known to influence June 2026 conditions, making this a straightforward seasonal forecast.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Seoul on June 4? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.