Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai is in its hottest part of the year, and August normals for the city sit around 31–32°C for daytime highs, with the month often producing several days in the mid-30s or above. Climatology sources also show that Shanghai’s August record heat can be much higher, with historical extremes around 40–41°C, so a single hot afternoon is enough to push a range settlement higher than the monthly average would suggest.[4][5][8]

That said, the current 0% YES pricing looks like a strong scepticism signal rather than a view on the weather itself. For comparison, forecasts and climatology for early August typically centre on highs in the low 30s°C, and even modest forecast errors can matter because the market settles on the *highest* temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station before the window closes.[8][12][15] Recent weather-history pages and monthly outlooks still point to a hot, humid pattern rather than an unusually cool one, which means the market is leaning on whether a proper heat spike develops, not on average conditions.[12][15]

For traders, the key catalyst is the day’s live forecast-versus-observed temperature path at Pudong, especially whether afternoon heating and any typhoon-related cloud cover cap the daily maximum. In practical terms, the market will move on updated airport forecasts, any late-morning or early-afternoon shifts in cloud, rain or wind, and the realised Wunderground high as it posts through the day; for broader context, Shanghai’s official news and travel-weather pages have been emphasising severe summer heat and typhoon-season volatility this year.[3][8][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 1? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

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Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

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