Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s airport station is being asked to deliver a late-summer high typical of a hot, humid city, but not one that is extreme by local standards. August in Shanghai usually produces daily highs around 32–33°C, with averages in the high 20s to low 30s and only occasional spikes well above that range, so the market is effectively pricing whether 2 August clears the mid-30s threshold or stays closer to a more ordinary August peak[3][8][18]. The current 0% yes reading sits well below the historical profile of the month, which is why any move in the market would most likely come from a forecast shift rather than from climatology alone[1][5][9].

Comparable cases suggest traders should anchor on the day’s forecast envelope rather than the monthly average. Shanghai has seen intense August heat in recent years, including a 35.8°C downtown reading late in August 2025 and a 39°C peak on 24 August 2025, while the broader historical record shows even higher outliers in the city’s hottest spells[4][15]. For 2 August itself, live forecast products currently point to highs in roughly the low 30s Celsius, with one source showing about 84°F and another giving a wider August range of 82° to 92°F, which leaves the market leaning on whether the airport station revises higher into the day or stays below the hotter bands[11][17].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 2? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.