Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s temperature on 4 August is being set by the day’s **high at Pudong Airport**, so the market is effectively a bet on whether the station peaks in the low- to mid-30s Celsius rather than on any single citywide average. Current forecasts point to a hot day: AccuWeather’s August outlook shows Shanghai highs around 82°F to 92°F (about 28°C to 33°C), while other day-specific forecasts for 4 August cluster around **34°C** with little or no rain, which is consistent with the city’s broader midsummer heat.[1][2][3]

That frame makes a 0% YES price easier to read than it first appears. August in Shanghai is typically very warm, but the market settles on the highest reading at one airport station, not on the metropolitan average, and airport maxima can sit a little above or below the headline city forecast depending on cloud cover, sea breeze and storm timing. Comparable August guides put Shanghai’s typical highs around **31°C to 32°C** and note occasional spikes into the high 30s Celsius in hotter years, including a reported **39°C** peak in August 2025.[7][8][17]

The main catalyst to watch is the evolving **same-day forecast** rather than any scheduled political or economic event: traders will lean on updates from weather forecasters, especially any shift in shower risk, humidity, or wind that could cap the afternoon high at Pudong.[1][3][14] With the settlement window ending at **12:00 UTC**, attention is on the afternoon warmth at the airport after the late-morning local rise in temperature, since the daily maximum can still be printed after that point in Shanghai time if the heat builds through the afternoon.[2][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 4? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.