Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the daily high temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 10 July 2026, a date historically prone to sweltering heat. Historical data frames the current 0% YES probability as an outlier; July averages near 32°C, with daytime highs typically exceeding 30°C and often reaching 35°C in humid conditions [5][6]. First-decade July highs average 29.8°C, while the second decade climbs to 30.7°C, making a sub-30°C peak unusual for this period [9]. Short-term model runs remain the critical variable, yet historical consistency suggests the market’s dismissal of higher ranges contradicts typical seasonal patterns [4].

Traders must monitor real-time meteorological updates from Wunderground and short-term forecast adjustments, as these directly dictate the resolution outcome [4]. No scheduled political debates, campaign-finance disclosures, or conventions influence this weather market; the sole catalyst is the atmospheric data recorded at the station. Recent forecasts indicate maximum temperatures of 32°C for 10 July, aligning with long-term averages [3]. The market leans entirely on this immediate weather dependency rather than any external political or economic event, rendering polling aggregators irrelevant to the settlement [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 10? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.