Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 13?

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Market context

Shanghai's weather in mid-June typically falls within the early summer monsoon season, when the city experiences warm, humid conditions ahead of the main rainy period. Historical data from Shanghai Pudong International Airport shows June temperatures commonly peak between 28°C and 32°C, though extremes occasionally reach 34°C or higher during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature range being offered or have not yet engaged substantially with this market.

Seasonal patterns provide the primary framework for assessing June 13th outcomes. Over the past decade, Shanghai's June highs have ranged from lows of 24°C during cooler years to peaks exceeding 35°C during particularly warm spells. The city's location on the Yangtze River delta and exposure to Pacific weather systems create variability; tropical systems occasionally bring cooler, wetter conditions, whilst high-pressure systems from the north can drive temperatures sharply upward. Wunderground's historical records for the airport station offer the definitive settlement source, with daily maximum temperatures typically recorded between midday and early afternoon.

Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts released in early June, particularly from the China Meteorological Administration and international models tracking monsoon progression. El Niño or La Niña conditions in the Pacific influence broader East Asian temperature patterns and may shift June outcomes toward warmer or cooler extremes. Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early summer can also alter Shanghai's weather trajectory substantially, introducing either cooling rainfall or pre-storm heat spikes depending on system timing and proximity.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 13? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.