Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 27?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the recorded peak temperature at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 27 June 2026, a date falling squarely within the city’s hot, humid rainy season. Historical data for June shows daily highs typically ranging between 24°C and 29.7°C, with the month’s hottest average occurring on 30 June at 29.7°C [5][7]. Comparable cases from recent years indicate that temperatures rarely dip below 24°C or exceed 33°C during this period, making a 0% crowd-implied probability for any specific range highly unusual unless the market is mispriced or leaning on an unspoken catalyst [3][5].

Traders should monitor upcoming weather bulletins from the National Weather Service and any scheduled climate declarations from local authorities, as these often precede shifts in temperature forecasts [1]. Recent campaign-finance disclosures in Shanghai have not directly influenced weather patterns, but political conventions scheduled for late June could accelerate public attention on climate data, potentially affecting market sentiment [2]. The market appears to be leaning on the absence of extreme heat warnings from AccuWeather’s June 2026 forecast, which projects highs between 27°C and 30°C, suggesting no outlier event is expected [2]. No moralising on trading is offered; the facts remain that historical norms and current forecasts align with moderate temperatures, not extremes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 27? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.