Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's weather in early June typically sits within a warm, humid band as the city transitions toward summer monsoon conditions. Historical data from Pudong International Airport shows that early June temperatures commonly reach the high 20s to low 30s Celsius, with occasional peaks above 32°C during particularly warm years. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature range options available or have not yet engaged substantively with this meteorological resolution criterion.

Comparable June temperature records at Shanghai Pudong reveal considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, recorded highs on 4 June ranged from 24°C to 31°C, with most years clustering between 26°C and 29°C. This historical spread indicates that multiple temperature brackets could plausibly resolve as correct, depending on how the market's range options are structured. The current zero probability reflects either minimal trading activity or a systematic mismatch between available options and expected outcomes.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the days preceding 4 June 2026, which typically provide reliable five-day outlooks for major cities. Wunderground's historical archive will serve as the definitive settlement source, recording the single highest temperature reading across all times on that date at the airport station. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 4 June, creating a narrow window for final price movements once actual conditions become observable.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 4? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.