Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 23?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's weather on 23 May 2026 will be measured against historical temperature records for that specific date at Pudong International Airport. Late May in Shanghai typically falls within late spring, when daily highs average between 28–32°C, though variation depends on prevailing wind patterns and moisture levels from the East China Sea. The settlement mechanism relies on Weather Underground's historical database, which aggregates readings from the airport's meteorological station throughout the day.

Historical data from Shanghai's May weather patterns shows considerable year-to-year variance. Over the past two decades, 23 May temperatures have ranged from lows around 20°C to highs exceeding 34°C, with the most extreme readings occurring during heat waves driven by subtropical high-pressure systems moving northward from the South China Sea. Comparable late-May dates at the same station reveal that temperatures above 32°C occur in roughly 40–50% of years, whilst readings above 35°C are less frequent but not exceptional. The current zero probability assigned by the crowd suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or insufficient liquidity in the market.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather forecasts released by China's meteorological authority in the weeks preceding May 2026, as well as broader climate patterns such as the East Asian summer monsoon onset timing. El Niño or La Niña conditions in early 2026 could influence regional temperature anomalies. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 23 May, requiring final readings to be confirmed on Weather Underground within days thereafter.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 23? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.