Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's weather on 25 May 2026 will be measured against historical May temperatures at Pudong International Airport, the city's primary meteorological station. Late May typically marks the transition into Shanghai's pre-monsoon period, with average highs around 28–30°C, though readings can exceed 32°C during heat waves. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical data archive, which consolidates official airport station records once the day concludes and preliminary readings are finalised.

Historical precedent suggests May temperatures in Shanghai cluster predictably within established ranges. Over the past two decades, 25 May highs have ranged from approximately 22°C during cooler years to 34°C during anomalously warm springs. The 0% crowd probability currently assigned likely reflects uncertainty about which specific temperature band will resolve, rather than doubt about whether a temperature will be recorded. Traders should reference China Meteorological Administration seasonal outlooks and any El Niño or La Niña patterns affecting East Asian weather systems in spring 2026, as these influence regional temperature trajectories months in advance.

The key catalyst remains the release of official meteorological data on 25 May itself. Wunderground's historical records typically update within 24–48 hours of observation, though occasional delays occur during system maintenance or data verification. Traders monitoring this market should track spring 2026 temperature anomalies as May approaches, comparing Shanghai's actual conditions against the 30-year normal range to assess whether the year trends warmer or cooler than baseline expectations.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 25? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.