Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 28?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's weather on 28 May 2026 will determine which temperature band captures the day's peak reading at Pudong International Airport. Late May sits within Shanghai's late spring period, typically characterised by warming trends ahead of the summer monsoon season. Historical records show May temperatures in Shanghai frequently exceed 28°C, with daily highs regularly reaching into the low 30s Celsius as the city transitions toward summer conditions.

The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating the outcome as predetermined across all temperature ranges. This contrasts sharply with Shanghai's actual May climatology, where temperatures consistently fall within measurable bands rather than clustering at extremes. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical weather database for the Pudong station, a standard meteorological reference point that has recorded reliable data across multiple years, providing a clear baseline for what constitutes typical late-May conditions in the region.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather pattern forecasts as May 2026 approaches, particularly any signals about whether the East Asian monsoon onset occurs earlier or later than the historical average. Shanghai's May temperatures typically range between 20°C and 32°C depending on specific weather systems, with humidity levels rising substantially. The current zero probability across all ranges suggests the market may lack liquidity or participant engagement rather than reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether measurable temperatures will occur on that date.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 28? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.