Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market resolves on the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport on 19 August 2026, with settlement based on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about temperature thresholds or awaiting clarification on specific range boundaries before committing capital.

Shenzhen's August climate presents consistent patterns worth examining. The city experiences peak summer heat during this month, with historical daily highs typically ranging between 32–35°C. Data from preceding Augusts shows temperatures rarely exceed 36°C at the airport station, though occasional spikes occur during particularly intense heat waves. The 2023 August average high was approximately 33.5°C, whilst 2022 saw comparable figures. These historical baselines provide reference points for evaluating which temperature ranges carry genuine probability versus those representing tail-risk scenarios.

Traders should monitor tropical weather systems developing across the South China Sea in late July and early August 2026, as typhoons or monsoon intensification can suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation. Conversely, high-pressure systems anchored over southern China typically drive sustained heat. Weather forecasting accuracy for specific daily highs remains limited beyond two weeks, meaning most meaningful price movement will occur in the final fortnight before settlement. The resolution methodology—prioritising Daily Observations over summary data—requires traders to understand Weather Underground's station reporting protocols, as discrepancies between measurement sources occasionally arise during extreme weather events.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 19? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.