Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 1?

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Market context

On 1 June 2026, Shenzhen will experience early summer conditions typical of southern China's subtropical climate. The market seeks to identify which temperature range will contain the highest reading recorded at Bao'an International Airport that day, with settlement determined by historical weather data from Wunderground.

Shenzhen's June temperatures show consistent patterns across recent decades. The city's average high in early June typically ranges between 28–32°C, with extremes occasionally reaching 33–35°C during heat waves. Historical records from the airport station indicate that temperatures above 35°C occur roughly once every three to five years in June, whilst readings below 27°C are exceptionally rare at this time of year. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about available temperature ranges or the market structure itself, rather than reflecting genuine meteorological expectation that Shenzhen will experience no measurable temperature on that date.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather patterns as June approaches. The South China monsoon typically establishes itself by early June, which can either suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation or intensify heat through humidity. El Niño or La Niña conditions in late 2025 and early 2026 may influence regional atmospheric patterns. The China Meteorological Administration publishes monthly climate outlooks that could provide guidance on whether June 2026 is expected to be warmer or cooler than the 30-year normal. Real-time forecasts from major weather services will become increasingly reliable in the final weeks before settlement.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 1? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.