Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 4?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen will experience early summer conditions on 4 June 2026, with the market seeking to identify the highest temperature recorded at Bao'an International Airport that day. The settlement mechanism relies on historical weather data from Weather Underground, which archives daily temperature extremes for this major southern Chinese airport station. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently expect the actual high to fall outside all available temperature ranges, an outcome that would require either data unavailability or an unprecedented meteorological event.

Shenzhen's June climate is well-documented through decades of airport records. Historical data from the China Meteorological Administration shows that early June temperatures at Bao'an typically range between 28°C and 34°C, with occasional peaks above 35°C during particularly warm years. The 2015–2024 decade saw June highs consistently between 30°C and 33°C, establishing a reliable baseline. The current zero probability reflects either an error in market construction or trader uncertainty about whether the settlement source will function as specified.

The critical catalyst is data availability on the settlement date itself. Weather Underground's historical records for Chinese stations occasionally experience delays or gaps in reporting, particularly for smaller weather stations, though Bao'an as a major international airport typically maintains reliable continuous records. Traders should monitor whether the platform updates its Shenzhen data in real time through early June 2026. Secondary considerations include any unusual weather patterns—tropical systems or heat waves—that might push temperatures into atypical ranges, though such events would require monitoring meteorological forecasts from late May onwards.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 4? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.