Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen's weather on 25 May 2026 will be measured against historical temperature records from Bao'an International Airport, the city's primary meteorological station. The market currently shows zero probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting traders have not yet engaged with this straightforward weather resolution. Settlement depends entirely on the highest temperature recorded at that station on the specified date, with Wunderground serving as the definitive source once data finalisation is complete.

May represents late spring in Shenzhen, falling within the city's warm season but before the peak summer heat. Historical records from the past decade show May maximum temperatures at Bao'an typically ranging between 28°C and 34°C, with occasional days exceeding 35°C during heat waves. The 2015–2024 period saw May averages cluster around 30–32°C, providing a baseline against which outlier outcomes can be assessed. Seasonal patterns favour moderate-to-warm conditions rather than extreme temperatures.

The primary catalyst for temperature outcomes will be prevailing atmospheric conditions in the weeks preceding 25 May 2026. Tropical weather systems, monsoon onset timing, and high-pressure systems over southern China all influence daily maxima. Traders should monitor meteorological forecasts issued in early May 2026, particularly from the China Meteorological Administration, which typically provides reliable seasonal outlooks. Urban heat island effects at the airport vicinity may also push recorded temperatures slightly higher than surrounding rural areas, a factor worth considering when evaluating probability distributions across temperature bands.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 25? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.