Highest temperature in Singapore on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market asks for the highest temperature recorded at Singapore Changi Airport on 1 July 2026, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to any outcome above the baseline range. This near‑certain dismissal of higher values reflects the prevailing Southwest Monsoon, which typically brings cloud cover and moisture that suppress peak daytime heat in early July.

Historical data from 1991 to 2020 shows Singapore’s July average high is 31°C, with daytime temperatures rarely exceeding 34°C even on the hottest days[2]. Polymarket traders heavily favour 32°C (44.5%) or 31°C (31.5%), aligning with climatological norms and the monsoon’s cooling influence[1]. The 0% YES probability suggests the market leans on the expectation that monsoon conditions will prevent a record‑breaking heat spike, despite global July 2024 being the warmest on record[3][4].

Traders should watch for sudden shifts in monsoon intensity, any official declarations from the Singapore Meteorological Service regarding heat advisories, and scheduled climate‑conference announcements that could signal anomalous warming trends. Recent campaign‑finance disclosures from environmental groups may also hint at emerging funding for climate‑resilience projects, potentially affecting local temperature mitigation efforts. The primary catalyst is the Southwest Monsoon’s strength; a weakening could trigger a rapid probability shift toward higher temperature ranges[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Singapore on July 1? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.