Highest temperature in Taipei on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market settles on the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport on 19 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. The settlement source is Weather Underground's historical weather data for that specific station and date, with resolution occurring at 12:00 UTC on the settlement day itself.

Taipei's July temperatures are remarkably consistent year on year. Historical data from Songshan Airport shows that daily highs in mid-July typically range between 33°C and 36°C, with occasional peaks reaching 37°C during particularly intense heat waves. The 0% probability currently assigned suggests traders are awaiting the market to populate with temperature ranges—the specific brackets against which the outcome will be matched remain absent from the current display. Without visible resolution categories, participants cannot yet assess which temperature band represents the most likely outcome, explaining the absence of meaningful trading activity.

The primary catalyst for this market is the publication of temperature ranges by the market operator, which will enable traders to evaluate historical volatility and seasonal patterns. Taipei experiences its most intense heat during July, driven by the East Asian summer monsoon and subtropical high-pressure systems. Traders should monitor whether the market's range options reflect typical mid-July conditions (33–36°C) or account for the possibility of extreme heat events. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 19 July 2026, giving traders approximately six months to assess meteorological forecasts and historical precedent before final resolution.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Taipei on July 19? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.