Highest temperature in Taipei on June 16?

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Market context

This market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station on 16 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, with historical data from Weather Underground serving as the official resolution source. Traders are betting on which temperature band will contain the day's peak reading.

June in Taipei typically falls within the early monsoon season, with average daily highs around 32–34°C and frequent afternoon thunderstorms. Historical records from Songshan Airport show June temperatures rarely exceed 37°C, though heat waves can push readings into the high 30s. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market may be calibrated to exclude extreme outliers or reflect uncertainty about which specific temperature bracket will resolve. Comparable June days at this station provide a baseline: most years see highs between 30–35°C, with occasional spikes to 36°C during particularly humid or stagnant air-mass conditions.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather patterns emerging in spring 2026 and any signals of anomalous heating or monsoon timing shifts. The Taiwan Central Weather Bureau publishes monthly climate outlooks and real-time forecasts that typically become reliable 10–14 days ahead of any given date. Atmospheric pressure systems and sea-surface temperatures in the Western Pacific will influence whether June 16 tracks toward typical seasonal norms or deviates upward. No scheduled weather events or policy changes directly affect this outcome; the resolution depends entirely on meteorological conditions on the day itself.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Taipei on June 16? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.