Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s highest temperature is set by the afternoon peak at Haneda Airport, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing the day’s top reading from Wunderground. August is normally Tokyo’s hottest month, and climate summaries put typical daytime highs around 31–33°C, so the most likely outcomes still sit in the low-to-mid 30s rather than genuinely cool weather.[13][10][3]

That makes the present 0% yes price look like a very firm call that temperatures will stay below the market’s higher brackets, but comparable August data show Tokyo can break sharply above its averages when heat builds under sustained summer conditions. Historical climate records for Tokyo show an August all-time high of 37.3°C, while recent summers have also produced upper-30s heat in Japan, underlining that the distribution is skewed towards occasional extreme spikes rather than a narrow band.[2][15][19]

For traders, the key catalysts are the official forecast path and the midday evolution of heat around Haneda, not campaign-style events or scheduled announcements. A recent market page on Polymarket has already been leaning on official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and real-time observations for Tokyo, which is consistent with how temperature markets usually move as the day’s maximum comes into focus.[14] The main dependency is whether cloud cover, sea breezes or a late-day surge in sunshine allows the station reading to overshoot the morning range and test the higher Celsius buckets before the settlement window closes.[1][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.