Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on 11 August 2026, with settlement determined by Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are not currently backing any specific temperature range for that date, though the market remains open for positions until the settlement window closes on 11 August 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Tokyo's August temperatures show consistent patterns across decades of meteorological records. Historical data from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicates that mid-August highs in Tokyo typically range between 32–35°C, with extreme heat events occasionally pushing above 37°C. The city experienced a record high of 41.1°C in July 2023, though August peaks tend to be marginally lower. Comparing 2026 to recent Augusts provides context: August 2023 saw Tokyo highs averaging around 33–34°C, whilst August 2022 peaked at approximately 35°C. These precedents suggest the most probable ranges cluster in the 33–36°C band.

Traders monitoring this market should track Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in late July 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature bands. Pacific typhoon activity during early August could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, whilst high-pressure systems from the Tibetan plateau tend to elevate heat. El Niño or La Niña conditions active during summer 2026 will influence broader regional temperature patterns. Real-time monitoring of Wunderground's Tokyo Haneda station data in the days preceding 11 August will provide the most reliable indication of likely settlement ranges.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 11? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.