Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 12 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with resolution based on the most granular recorded data rather than summary figures. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting traders have not yet engaged with this specific date forecast or are awaiting more reliable seasonal modelling data.

August temperatures in Tokyo historically cluster between 32–35°C, with extremes occasionally reaching 37–38°C during heat waves. The Japan Meteorological Agency's records show that mid-August typically represents the tail end of the summer peak, though recent years have seen increasing volatility. In August 2023, Tokyo recorded a high of 35.1°C on the 12th; in 2022, the same date saw 33.8°C. These precedents suggest the most probable range sits in the 33–36°C band, yet the market's complete absence of probability allocation indicates either insufficient trader participation or deliberate caution given the 18-month forecast horizon.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks released in June and July 2026, which typically refine predictions for August weather patterns. El Niño or La Niña conditions, tracked by the Japan Meteorological Corporation, meaningfully influence summer temperatures across the region. Additionally, any significant volcanic activity or atmospheric anomalies reported between now and August could shift baseline expectations. The resolution methodology's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than official JMA figures introduces a minor dependency on that platform's data quality and availability on the settlement date.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 12? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.