Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s peak temperature on this date will be determined by how much heat the city can build before any late-day cloud or shower activity interrupts the climb. The market is currently pricing in no chance of the highest reading landing in its top band, which is striking given that August in Tokyo typically produces average maximums around **31°C** and regularly pushes above 30°C in the afternoon[7][10].

The historical frame points to a familiar midsummer pattern rather than an outlier: Tokyo often sits in the low 30s in August, but recent summers have also produced much hotter days, including a reported **36.4°C** in central Tokyo on one July day this year[11]. JMA-linked guidance cited in market commentary has pointed to a **36°C** baseline forecast for 2 August, with clear skies under a strengthened Pacific High supporting subsidence warming, while scattered showers could still shave a degree or two off the peak[2][13]. That combination helps explain why a crowd expecting only modest upside would lean on the forecast distribution rather than a single extreme outcome[2].

For traders, the key catalyst is the same-day evolution of the forecast: whether the morning clears quickly, whether afternoon convection develops, and whether the sea-breeze regime limits inland warming near Haneda. The most useful reference is the official JMA outlook for the Kanto region and any updated local forecast commentary, with a recent market summary noting that model consensus supports intensification but that shower timing could cap the maximum[2][13]. At present, the market is leaning most heavily on *weather model drift* rather than any scheduled announcement or external event.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.