Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s August heat is the key real-world driver here, with seasonal normals pointing to a city that is often hot enough for afternoon maxima in the low- to mid-30s Celsius and, on some days, higher. AccuWeather’s August outlook for Tokyo shows daily highs ranging from 82° to 90°F, with an average August high of 86°F, while WeatherSpark describes August as a month in which daily highs are commonly around 86°F and can rarely exceed 93°F.[1][16] That makes a settlement band covering the day’s peak temperature, rather than the noon reading, sensitive to whether one strong hot spell develops after midday.

The current 0% YES crowd price looks anchored to the fact that the official forecast is not especially aggressive on extreme heat. The Japan Meteorological Agency is showing cloudy conditions for Tokyo across the first week of August, including 4 August, with showers flagged on surrounding days.[13] AccuWeather likewise has Tokyo near the mid-80s Fahrenheit at the start of the period, and timeanddate’s hourly view shows temperatures only gradually lifting through the morning rather than breaking sharply higher early on.[1][3] In practice, the market should lean on whether the day produces a clean, sun-driven spike or stays capped by cloud and rain.

For traders, the main catalysts are the evolving Tokyo forecast, any shift in cloud cover or shower timing, and whether the hottest part of the day coincides with clear skies and light winds rather than convective rain. The most relevant comparator is the usual August pattern in Tokyo: hot, humid, and changeable, with rainfall and occasional typhoon influence often limiting maxima even when the month is broadly warm.[17][19] Because resolution depends on the *highest* recorded temperature at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on the day, late-afternoon heating matters more than the morning setup, and a forecast upgrade from cloudy to mostly sunny would be the clearest reason for the market to reprice.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.