Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s July heat is entering its peak phase, with the city facing its most intense summer conditions as the month progresses. The market currently assigns zero probability to any outcome above the baseline, reflecting a collective view that extreme highs are unlikely at this specific date, despite seasonal trends pointing toward warmer days. Historical data for Tokyo Haneda Airport shows average July highs around 30°C (86°F), with recent forecasts suggesting daily peaks between 29°C and 33°C for mid-July 2026 [1].

Comparable cases from recent years indicate that while Tokyo regularly experiences temperatures above 35°C in late July, mid-month peaks rarely breach 32°C unless under exceptional heatwave conditions. Japan’s all-time record of 41.2°C was set in Tamba City in late July 2025, not in Tokyo, and such extremes are geographically and meteorologically distinct from Haneda’s coastal station profile [4][5]. This context supports the market’s current pricing, which leans heavily on the 31°C outcome at 37% probability, with 32°C as the next most likely at 24% [2].

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily heatwave advisories and any sudden shifts in the Pacific high-pressure system, which could trigger rapid temperature spikes. The settlement relies on Wunderground’s recorded high for Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, making real-time station data the primary catalyst [2]. No scheduled political debates or campaign disclosures influence this weather market; the sole dependency is atmospheric conditions, with the next key indicator being the agency’s 24-hour forecast update expected by midday UTC.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.