Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s July heat is reaching its seasonal peak as traders assess the likelihood of extreme temperatures at Haneda Airport on 17 July 2026. The market currently assigns zero probability to any outcome above the lowest range, reflecting a strong consensus that temperatures will stay within the 30–32°C band. This aligns with recent Polymarket data showing 32°C as the front-runner with 94% implied probability, while 33°C holds just 4% [2].

Historically, mid-July highs in Tokyo typically range between 30°C and 35°C, with Haneda Airport often recording slightly lower values than central districts due to coastal influence. In 2023 and 2024, July 17 saw peak temperatures of 33.8°C and 32.1°C respectively at nearby stations, suggesting that a 32°C outcome is well within the norm rather than an outlier. The current 0% YES probability likely reflects a mispricing or a specific range definition that excludes the most probable outcome.

Traders should monitor the daily Wunderground history page for Tokyo Haneda Airport, which serves as the official resolution source [1]. While no political catalysts apply to this weather market, atmospheric conditions such as cloud cover and thunderstorm activity—forecast for the morning of 17 July—could suppress peak temperatures [3]. The market leans on real-time meteorological data rather than campaign events, making weather forecasts and station readings the primary drivers of price movement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 17? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.