Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s weather on 31 July is normally shaped by the height of summer heat and humidity, with climatology pointing to highs around the mid-20s to mid-30s Celsius and frequent sticky conditions. Current forecast material is already consistent with a warm day: AccuWeather puts Tokyo’s July high range at 79–88°F, while a Japan Meteorological Agency-linked forecast cited by FNN showed a Tokyo maximum of 36°C for 31 July. [1][3]

That backdrop helps explain why the market should not be read like a binary cold-snap bet: late-July Tokyo often sits close to its seasonal peak, and 31 July is identified by WeatherSpark as the clearest day of the month, which can support stronger daytime heating if cloud cover stays limited. Time and Date’s extended forecast, however, is showing thunderstorms and a top temperature of 79°F on 31 July, which points to the main historical analogue for this contract being a day where rainfall or cloud cover caps the afternoon high rather than an outright cool spell. [15][2]

The main catalyst to watch is the official Japanese forecast cycle into the morning and early afternoon, especially whether Tokyo remains under the hotter, sunnier scenario or shifts towards convective rain and overcast skies. The FNN report based on the Japan Meteorological Agency’s 30 July bulletin is the clearest near-term signal for a 36°C maximum, so any later update that trims that number would matter for the realised top temperature at Haneda. [3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 31? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

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Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

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Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

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It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.