Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daytime heat recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 7 July 2026, a date historically prone to intense summer highs and daily rainfall. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a specific high-temperature bin suggests the market expects conditions to fall outside that narrow range, likely due to the region’s typical July volatility where drizzle and cloud cover frequently cap maximums below extreme thresholds.

Historical parallels frame this probability: July in Tokyo consistently sees highs in the low 30s Celsius, yet daily rain and high humidity often suppress peaks, as seen in recent years where temperatures hovered near 27–29°C despite broader heatwaves. Japan’s record high of 41.2°C in 2025 occurred in Hyogo, not Tokyo, reinforcing that extreme outliers are geographically specific and unlikely to define Haneda’s July 7 reading [8].

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s hourly updates for 7 July, alongside any sudden shifts in regional weather patterns driven by approaching typhoons or monsoon fronts. Recent Reuters reports on Japan’s 2025 heat record highlight how isolated extreme events can mislead expectations for Tokyo’s typical summer profile [8]. The market leans on the catalyst of real-time temperature data from Wunderground, with no scheduled political debates or campaign disclosures influencing this weather-specific resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.