Highest temperature in Wellington on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington is in its statistically cool season in August, with long-run normals clustering around a 12–13°C daytime high and mid-single-digit to high-single-digit lows, so the market is really about whether the airport reaches the upper end of a fairly narrow winter range rather than anything exceptional.[1][2][16] Recent daily observations from Weather Underground already show August highs moving between 48°F and 61°F in the first week of the month, which is consistent with the city’s usually modest day-to-day temperature swings.[8]

That makes the crowd-implied 0% YES look like an overreaction if interpreted as a blanket claim that the top temperature cannot land in a higher bucket, because Wellington’s August history includes occasional peaks well above the average, even if such outcomes are uncommon.[11][12][20] Comparable August climatology from multiple sources places the typical maximum around 12°C, but record highs for the month are far above that baseline, which is why traders usually read this sort of contract through the lens of whether a brief warm spell, sunshine break or föhn-like northerly flow can lift the airport reading into the next band.[1][11][16]

The immediate catalyst is the weather pattern over the next hours and the airport station data itself: the market settles off Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table, so intraday updates there matter more than the summary “Day High & Low” line.[4][8] Forecast products for Wellington’s August 2026 run suggest daytime highs mostly in the low-to-mid teens Celsius, with some days closer to 15°C, so any move in local wind direction, cloud cover or post-frontal clearing could shift the winning temperature range.[17][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Wellington on August 11? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.