Highest temperature in Wellington on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the peak temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 13 July 2026, a date falling in the heart of New Zealand’s winter. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for any YES outcome, reflecting the near-certainty that temperatures will remain well below summer thresholds, consistent with seasonal norms for the region.

Historical data confirms July is Wellington’s coldest month, with average daytime temperatures hovering around 13°C and daily highs rarely exceeding 15°C[6][10]. At Wellington International Airport, daily high temperatures in July typically cluster around 54°F (12.2°C), seldom rising above 58°F (14.4°C)[10]. Given these entrenched climatic patterns, the 0% probability aligns with decades of observed weather, where extreme heat events in midwinter are virtually non-existent at this exposed coastal site[5].

Traders should monitor real-time observations from Weather Underground, the designated resolution source, for any anomalous spikes on 13 July, though no such deviations are forecast[7]. While no political debates or campaign disclosures influence weather outcomes, the market’s settlement depends entirely on the official hourly record from NZWN station[7]. With settlement closing at 12:00 UTC on 13 July 2026, the window for unexpected data is narrow, and current models show no catalysts capable of shifting temperatures beyond historical winter ranges.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Wellington on July 13? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.