Highest temperature in Wellington on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market assesses the likelihood of specific temperature ranges for the highest reading at Wellington International Airport on 16 July 2026, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to any outcome above the lowest brackets. This 0% YES figure for higher temperatures reflects a consensus that mid-July in Wellington will remain firmly within typical winter bounds, rather than an expectation of extreme cold. The frontrunner is 15°C at 53%, closely trailed by 16°C at 44%, indicating traders expect a mild winter day consistent with the station’s historical median for this period [1].

Historical data from Wellington International Airport shows that July highs rarely exceed 16°C, with 13°C being a common current reading under southerly flow and 72% humidity [2]. The current 0% probability for higher ranges aligns with decades of weather records where temperatures above 17°C in mid-July are statistical outliers, often linked to rare northerly incursions rather than standard winter patterns. This framing suggests the market is correctly pricing in the low volatility of Wellington’s winter climate, where sustained heatwaves are virtually non-existent compared to the country’s southern regions.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, as the day progresses to confirm if any anomalous northerly wind shift occurs [1]. While no scheduled political debates or campaign disclosures influence weather outcomes, the primary catalyst remains the immediate atmospheric pressure trend, currently rising at 998mb with southerly winds at 16 mph [2]. Any deviation from this stable southerly pattern would be the sole driver for a rapid shift in implied probabilities, though current meteorological models suggest such a shift is unlikely before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Wellington on July 16? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.