Highest temperature in Wellington on June 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport in New Zealand on 24 June 2026, with the crowd currently assigning near-zero probability to any outcome above the implied threshold. Historical data for Wellington in June shows daily highs typically falling between 50°F and 62°F (10°C to 17°C), rarely dipping below 50°F or exceeding 62°F[4]. Comparable prediction markets for the same location and period cluster tightly around 15°C to 17°C, with 16°C holding 99% implied probability in active venues, suggesting the current 0% YES odds reflect a mispricing rather than an extreme weather expectation[1].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from NIWA’s seasonal outlook and Wunderground’s hourly temperature logs, as frontal timing and wind strength are the primary catalysts for temperature deviations in this region[2]. Recent climate models indicate no significant blocking highs or intense cold-air outbreaks, reinforcing a near-average seasonal trajectory consistent with the 13°C average for late June[2]. The market is leaning on the absence of extreme atmospheric blocking events, a factor confirmed by NIWA’s near-average seasonal forecast, which traders can verify via the National Weather Service’s live time-series data for NZWN[5]. No scheduled political debates or campaign-finance disclosures influence this weather-specific outcome, making meteorological data the sole determinant.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Wellington on June 24? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.