Highest temperature in Wellington on June 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The market hinges on whether Wellington International Airport records a temperature within a specific range on 26 June 2026, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to the "YES" outcome. This near-total dismissal suggests traders believe the day’s conditions will fall outside the defined bracket, likely due to the persistent cold, wet weather typical of early winter in New Zealand. Historical data confirms that June highs at this station average between 13°C and 14°C, with overcast skies dominating 42% of the month, making extreme warmth exceptionally rare.

Recent meteorological developments reinforce this caution: MetService NZ reported that Wellington has already surpassed its record maximum June temperature, reaching over 19°C earlier in the month, indicating that any further spike is improbable under current atmospheric patterns. Traders should monitor daily forecasts from the BBC Weather service and real-time updates from the National Weather Service, which currently predict gales, heavy rain, and temperatures hovering around 11°C to 15°C for the coming days. The market leans heavily on the catalyst of sustained winter precipitation and low-pressure systems, which suppress daytime heating and maintain cool conditions across the region. No political debates or campaign disclosures influence this weather-specific outcome; the sole driver remains the prevailing climatic regime.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Wellington on June 26? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.