Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wuhan's maximum temperature on 11 August 2026 will be measured at Tianhe International Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning the highest temperature recorded during the calendar day in Wuhan will determine the outcome. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting traders have not yet engaged with this specific forecast.

August represents peak summer heat in Wuhan, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 32°C and 37°C during this period. The city's location in the Yangtze River valley and subtropical climate create consistently elevated temperatures through mid-summer. Comparable August dates from preceding years provide the primary reference point for assessing plausible temperature bands, though individual daily variation remains substantial depending on cloud cover, precipitation, and atmospheric circulation patterns.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts and any severe weather alerts issued in the weeks preceding 11 August 2026. Tropical cyclone activity affecting central China during late summer can substantially depress daily maxima through increased cloud cover and rainfall, whilst high-pressure systems typically drive temperatures toward the upper end of the seasonal range. Weather Underground's historical data for Wuhan Tianhe station will be the decisive source, with the Daily Observations table taking precedence over summary figures should any discrepancies emerge.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 11? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.