Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the lowest temperature on 17 August 2026, measured to one decimal place in Celsius. This market resolves based on the official "Absolute Daily Min" figure published in the Observatory's Daily Extract once data is finalised. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, though resolution may be delayed pending official publication of meteorological records.

August temperatures in Hong Kong cluster consistently in the 25–28°C range for daily minima, reflecting the territory's subtropical climate during peak summer monsoon season. Historical data from the Observatory shows that absolute daily minima below 24°C are exceptionally rare in mid-August; the lowest August minimum on record across recent decades typically falls between 22–24°C. Current crowd probability at 0% suggests traders are pricing in confidence that the minimum will exceed the highest threshold offered in the resolution brackets, though the specific temperature bands available should be examined against historical volatility.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any published advisories regarding unusual weather patterns in early August 2026. Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during late summer can significantly depress daily minima, though such events are typically flagged weeks in advance. The Observatory publishes extended forecasts and monthly climate summaries on its website; any unusual atmospheric conditions reported in July or early August would warrant reassessment of temperature expectations for mid-month.

Methodology

This page tracks Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.