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Iran leader end of 2026?

How the prediction markets are pricing "Iran leader end of 2026?" right now — live Polymarket order book quote, plus platform comparison.

Mojtaba Khamenei 85% No Head of State 3% Reza Pahlavi 3% Alireza Arafi 2% Volume: $37.7M Liquidity: $1.4M Closes: 31 Dec 2026
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Iran leader end of 2026?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
85% 15% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
85% 15% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Mojtaba Khamenei85%
No Head of State3%
Reza Pahlavi3%
Alireza Arafi2%
Hassan Khomeini1%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri0%
Sadegh Larijani0%
Hassan Shariatmadari0%
Maryam Rajavi0%
Massoud Rajavi0%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian0%
Reza Pirzadeh0%
Navid Shomali0%
Mustafa Hijri0%
Ali Motahari0%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel0%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi0%
Sadegh Mahsouli0%
Masoud Pezeshkian0%
Saeed Jalili0%
Hassan Rouhani0%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad0%
Mohammad Khatami0%
Other0%
Mohammad Pakpour0%
Ali Larijani0%
Abbas Araghchi0%
Ahmad Vahidi0%
Mohsen Araki0%
Nasir Hosseini0%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani0%
Ali Asghar Hejazi0%
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Market context

Iran’s leadership question is being shaped by the post-Khamenei succession and by whether real authority stays with the clerical office or shifts further towards the security apparatus. Reuters reported in late April that the Guards had seized wartime power and that Mojtaba Khamenei’s role had become more about endorsing decisions than issuing them, which is why the market still treats the identity of the de facto ruler as contestable rather than purely formal.[2] Even though the current crowd price implies only a 3% chance on the non-front-running outcome, that low number sits against a backdrop in which institutional continuity has so far mattered more than public symbolism.[14]

The main historical frame is that Iranian transitions often look orderly on paper but are decided by factional control in practice. CFR’s work on leadership transition stresses that the supreme leader’s authority is embedded in a wider network of clerical, military and institutional power, while Rasanah argues that no successor is likely to command Khamenei’s old level of personal dominance.[4][3] Reuters also noted after Khamenei’s death that no clear decision-maker remained and that the regime’s survival logic would keep the IRGC central, which supports reading this market through regime durability rather than a simple succession announcement.[1][5]

For traders, the catalyst to watch is whether the current hierarchy hardens around a single name or whether poll movements, elite statements and any new assembly or security decisions show power migrating away from the formal supreme-leader line. Reuters’ March and April coverage is the key news lens here: one report said intelligence saw no imminent state collapse, while later reporting described Guards commanders dictating strategy, so any fresh declaration from the Assembly of Experts, IRGC-linked figures, or senior clerical offices would matter more than international recognition.[14][2] That makes the market most sensitive to concrete control signals over the armed forces, broadcasting, and national decision-making, not just to who is publicly announced.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Iran leader end of 2026? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?
Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
What resolution source is used for elections?
Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
How fast do political markets react to news?
High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
Which political events have the biggest volume?
US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.
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Related Topics

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