🎁 New traders: 100% Deposit Match up to $500 · 0% fees · instant USDC payoutsClaim it →
HomeGuideCryptoMarketsBlogTrade this market →

Next French Presidential Election

"Next French Presidential Election" — live political-market odds plus comparison across the four major prediction venues.

Marine Le Pen 30% Édouard Philippe 26% Jean-Luc Mélenchon 14% Gabriel Attal 4% Volume: $117.1M Liquidity: $14.1M Closes: 30 Apr 2027
Open live market →
Next French Presidential Election

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 30% 70% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 30% 70% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Marine Le Pen30%
Édouard Philippe26%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon14%
Gabriel Attal4%
Jordan Bardella3%
Bruno Retailleau3%
François Hollande3%
David Lisnard2%
Raphaël Glucksmann2%
Dominique de Villepin2%
Sarah Knafo2%
Éric Zemmour1%
Sébastien Lecornu1%
Xavier Bertrand0%
Laurent Wauquiez0%
François Ruffin0%
Marine Tondelier0%
Fabien Roussel0%
Olivier Faure0%
Ségolène Royal0%
François Asselineau0%
Clémentine Autain0%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan0%
Michel Barnier0%
Valérie Pécresse0%
François Bayrou0%
Élisabeth Borne0%
Yaël Braun-Pivet0%
Jean Castex0%
Gérald Darmanin0%
Carole Delga0%
Bernard Cazeneuve0%
Manuel Bompard0%
Mathilde Panot0%
Other0%
Juan Branco0%
Clémence Guetté0%
Karim Bouamrane0%
Lucie Castets0%
Yannick Jadot0%
François Baroin0%
Marion Maréchal0%
Person J0%
Person K0%
Person L0%
Person M0%
Person N0%
Person O0%
Person P0%
Person Q0%
Person R0%
Person S0%
Person T0%
Person U0%
Person V0%
Person W0%
Person X0%
Person Y0%
Person Z0%
Person AA0%
Person AB0%
Person AC0%
Person AD0%
Person AE0%
Person AF0%
Person AG0%
Person AH0%
Person AI0%
Person AJ0%
Person AK0%
Person AL0%
Person AM0%
Person AN0%
Person AO0%
Person AP0%
Person AQ0%
Person AR0%
Person AS0%
Person AT0%
Person AU0%
Person AV0%
Person AW0%
Person AX0%
Person AY0%
Person AZ0%
Person BA0%
Person BB0%
Person BC0%
Person BD0%
Person BE0%
Person BF0%
Person BG0%
Person BH0%
Person BI0%
Person BJ0%
Person BK0%
Person BL0%
Person BM0%
Person BN0%
Person BO0%
Person BP0%
Person BQ0%
Person BR0%
Person BS0%
Person BT0%
Person BU0%
Person BV0%
Person BW0%
Person BX0%
Person BY0%
Person BZ0%
Person CA0%
Person CB0%
Person CC0%
Person CD0%
Person CE0%
Person CF0%
Person CG0%
Person CH0%
Person CI0%
Person CJ0%
Person CK0%
Person CL0%
Person CM0%
Person CN0%
Person CO0%
Person CP0%
Person CQ0%

Market context

Market consensus: 30% chance of next french presidential election. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless …

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Next French Presidential Election plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?
Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
How fast do political markets react to news?
High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
Which political events have the biggest volume?
US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.
David ParkDavid ParkSports Data AnalystandOliver HughesOliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporter

Trade Next French Presidential Election on Election Predictions UK

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →

Related live markets

More live prediction markets from our tracker — every trade button routes to Election Predictions UK.

See all markets →