Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26?

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Market context

Chongqing is entering its peak summer heatwave, with the subtropical high-pressure ridge firmly positioned over the Sichuan Basin, driving daily temperatures toward record highs. The market currently assigns zero probability to the “YES” outcome, implying the crowd expects the highest temperature on 26 June 2026 to fall outside the specified range. This reflects a consensus that extreme heat is imminent, but perhaps not yet at the threshold required for the bet to succeed.

Historically, Chongqing has recorded 149 days with maximum temperatures of 40°C or higher since 1951, cementing its reputation as one of China’s hottest cities. The hottest day in recent history hit 43.2°C on 23 August 2022, while June typically sees average daytime highs around 28.7°C. Comparable cases from late June show peak temperatures often reaching 31–32°C under strong ridge conditions, suggesting the current zero probability may be overly cautious if the heatwave intensifies further.

Traders should monitor updates from Wunderground for real-time temperature readings at the Jiangbei International Airport Station, as well as forecasts from PredictWind for June 2026. The key catalyst is the strength and persistence of the subtropical ridge, which has already pushed peak temperatures toward 31–32°C in earlier June dates. A sudden intensification could breach the threshold, making this the primary driver for potential poll movement. No major political debates or campaign disclosures are expected to influence weather outcomes, so the market leans entirely on atmospheric dynamics.

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Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.