Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature on 31 May 2026, with settlement determined by the official daily maximum reading published in the Observatory's Daily Extract. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting traders view this as an event requiring baseline meteorological data rather than exceptional conditions.

Hong Kong's May temperatures typically range between 28°C and 33°C, with historical daily maxima rarely exceeding 35°C in late May. The Observatory's records from 2015–2024 show May 31st highs clustering around 30–32°C, with only occasional excursions above 33°C. These patterns reflect the transition period between spring and the onset of the southwest monsoon, when humidity rises but extreme heat remains uncommon. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects uncertainty about which specific temperature band will resolve rather than doubt about temperature recording itself.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather forecasts released by the Hong Kong Observatory in the weeks preceding 31 May 2026, particularly any alerts regarding unusual heat patterns or monsoon timing shifts. The Observatory publishes extended outlooks approximately two weeks in advance. Additionally, broader East Asian weather patterns—including tropical cyclone activity and pressure systems affecting southern China—can influence late May temperatures in Hong Kong. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 31 May, requiring the Observatory's Daily Extract to be finalised before resolution occurs, which typically happens within days of the observation date.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 31? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.